74
Bill Gore, founder of W.L. Gore & Associates, articulated a helpful
concept for decision making and risk taking, what he called the “waterline”
principle. Think of being on a ship, and imaging that any decision gone bad
will blow a hole in the side of the ship. If you blow a hole above the
waterline (where the ship won’t take on water and possibly sink), you can patch
the hole, and learn from the experience, and sail on. But if you blow a hole
below the waterline, you can find yourself facing gushers of water pouring in,
pulling you toward the ocean floor. And if it’s big enough hole, you might go
down really fast, just like some of the financial-company catastrophes in 2008.
To be clear, great enterprises do make big bets, but they avoid big
bets that could blow holes below the waterline. When making risky bets and
decisions in the face of ambiguous or conflicting data, ask three questions:
1)
What’s the upside, if events turn out well?
2)
What’s the downside, if events go very badly?
3)
Can
you live with the downside? Truly?
89
The key point here is that they go for a quick, big solution or bold
stroke to jump-start a recovery, rather than embark on the more pedestrian,
arduous process of rebuilding long-term
momentum.
92
And when one silver bullet fails, they search for another and then yet
another. The signature of mediocrity (the quality of being not very good 平庸) is not an unwillingness to change. The
signature of mediocrity is chronic inconsistency.
95
Now you might be thinking, “But wouldn’t companies in trouble need to
go outside?” Perhaps, but keep in mind, in this analysis of decline,
performance generally worsened under saviors from the outside. And in our
previous research, over 90 percent of the CEPs that led companies from good to
great came from inside; meanwhile, over two0thirds of the comparison companies
in that study hired a CEP from the outside yet failed to make a comparable
leap.
96
When we find ourselves in trouble, when we find ourselves on the cusp
of falling, our survival instinct – and
our fear – can evoke lurching, reactive
behavior absolutely contrary to survival. The very moment when we need to talk
calm, deliberate action, we run the risk of doing the exact opposite and
bringing about the very outcomes we most fear.
97
They fail to see that, just like Gerstner at IBM, leaders atop
companies in the late stages of decline need to get back to a calm,
clear-headed, and focused approach. If you want to reverse decline, be rigorous
about what not to do.
Breathe. Calm yourself. Think. Focus. Aim. Take one shot at a time.
111
When should a company continue to fight, and when does refusal to
capitulate (to accept military defeat认输) become just another form of
denial. If you cannot marshal a compelling answer to the question, “What would
be lost, and how would the world be worse off, if we ceased to exist?’ then
perhaps capitulation is the wise path. But if you have a clear and inspired
purpose built upon solid core values, then the noble course may be to fight on,
to reverse decline, and to try to rekindle greatness.
119
In fact, our research shows that if you’ve been practicing the
principles of greatness all the way along, you should get down your knees and
pray for severe turbulence, for that’s
when you can pull even further ahead of those who lack your relentless
intensity.
If you have fallen into decline, get back to solid management disciplines – now!
122
Clutching his notes, for he always feared that without his carefully
prepared text he would be at a loss for words, Churchill (1874 – 1965, UK Prime
Minister twice 1940–45 and 1951–55) glowered out across the House of Commons
and issued his famous words, “We shall
never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this
Island or a large part of it were subjugate and starving, then our Empire
beyond the seas, armed and guarded by the British Fleet, would carry on the
struggle, until, in God’s good time,
the New World, with all its power and might, steps forth to the rescue and the
liberation of the old.”
123
In 1941, during England’s sternest days, Churchill returned to his old
school Harrow, where he’d received embarrassingly low scores, to give a
commencement address. The headmaster cast worried glances at Churchill, who had
fallen asleep, slumbering through most of the ceremony. But when introduced,
Churchill made his way to the podium, stared out over the assemblage of boys,
and gave his commencement message, “This is the lesson: never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never – in
nothing, great or small, large or petty – never give in except to convictions
of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently
overwhelming might of the enemy.”
123
Failure is not so much a physical state of mind; success is falling
down, and getting up one more time, without end.
148
Enduring great companies passionately adhere to a set of timeless core
values and pursue a core purpose beyond just making money. But there is also a
risk to manage: having an almost righteous sense of one’s value and purpose
(“We’re the good guys”) can perhaps make a company more vulnerable to Stages 1
to 3. Fannie Mae’s missionary zeal for expanding the Americans Dream of home
ownership to as many Americans as possible contributed, in part, to its
arrogance, its pursuit of growth, and even its increased risk profile. Whenever people begin to confuse the
nobility of their cause with the goodness and wisdom of their actions – “We’re
good people in pursuit of a noble cause, and therefore our decisions are good
and wise” – they can perhaps more easily lead themselves astray. Bad
decisions made with good intentions are still bad decisions.
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